Ten years after the financial crisis it is clear that the world continues to suffer from the fallout. The march of technology, changing demographics and sluggish productivity growth have conspired to make this a world of slower growth, lower inflation and correspondingly lower interest rates. Geopolitical tensions have also picked up as our rules-based economic and political system has come under pressure. Consequently, this can best be described as a world of mounting disconnections – in politics, as tensions mount across large parts of the Western world; …
Brexit, trade talks, the Italian budget. These are the major political risks currently weighing on the market. A slowing Chinese economy and its fallout to the euro area are among the economic risks discussed at the moment. And while forecasting the outcome of a political risk has proven to be far more difficult than projecting the outcome of the toss of a coin, the economic risks are expected to abate later this year. In light of these looming risks, another factor has received too little attention for now – the risk of asset price disinflation.
In the January issue of ‘Thinking Ahead’ we take on the role of predicting what this year will hold for financial markets from a product, market and regulatory perspective. Fortunately for me, I only have to comment on one of those topics, namely the regulatory developments we expect to see in 2019, covering technological advancement as well as the effects of existing regulation. In addition, Brexit is still on the horizon, which could well have a significant impact on regulation, in particular in a no-deal scenario.
November turned out to be another month of high volatility in equity markets, following on from the market sell-off seen in October that was sparked by investor concerns on the sustainability of economic growth, rising US interest rates and ongoing trade tensions. While major indices managed to recover ground at the start of the month, mid-month saw another dive in prices, with several indices closing near their October lows again.
The Internet economy of Southeast Asia
An update based on a report from Google and Temasek
Southeast Asia’s Internet economy is going from strength to strength, growing at an impressive rate of 37% a year. That’s the message delivered by the latest report issued jointly by Google and Singapore’s state investment firm Temasek, entitled ‘e-Conomy SEA 2018’.